For the first time in more than two years, average diesel prices in the U.S. will fall below their year-ago levels on Friday, according to GasBuddy.

Diesel prices have declined nearly $1.50 per gallon since reaching record-high levels last spring and now stand at an average of $4.35 per gallon, the lowest level since the days immediately after the Russian invasion of Uraine.

“Diesel’s decline has been astounding – we’ve seen improvements in fundamentals over the last few months with diesel prices down nearly $1 per gallon in the last 100 days, thanks in part due to the Fed raising interest rates, throttling back the economy, as well as Mother Nature reducing consumption through a mild winter and curbing consumption of diesel’s cousin, heating oil,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Coming out of winter, we’ll continue to see diesel prices decline. Barring an unexpected disruption or escalation in global events, diesel prices this summer could be $2 per gallon lower than last summer, which is certainly good news for the economy and transportation sectors stung by the previous high costs of diesel fuel.”

 

Diesel by the numbers

• Seven states have average diesel prices below $4 per gallon — Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Wisconsin
• Most common diesel prices in the U.S., in order: $3.99, $4.09, $3.89, $4.29, $4.19
• $3.62 per gallon — average of lowest priced 10 percent of U.S. stations
• $5.82 per gallon — pea in national average in 2022
• 78 cents — the amount of decline to average diesel prices in the past 90 days

 

Retail prices are likely to continue to fall as demand continues to ease and winter heating oil consumption declines, according to GasBuddy. As long as central banks continue to raise interest rates to cool off previously overheated economies, there will be continued downward pressure through most of the spring and summer, even as gasoline prices are likely to rise during that timeframe.